Background
 

On 01 December 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments regarding Mississippi case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which challenges the state’s abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy. A Supreme Court decision is not expected until June 2022, however, the Politico news outlet has obtained a leaked, draft majority opinion regarding the case.  While the case has yet to be officially decided and announced, the document indicates the court will overturn the 1973 landmark case of Roe vs Wade. 
 

VFC Shield members should be prepared for a potential increase in abortion-related events, rallies, and protests with the potential for violence and criminal activity.
 

Indicators of Unrest or Criminal Behavior/Trends

The abortion-related debate has historically been riddled with violence and criminal activity.  With a heightened focus on the topic, it is likely there will be increased incidents over the next year.

Marked Increase in Online Postings, Rallies and Marches
Due to this leaked document, we have seen groups from both sides of the issue begin to organize, plan and execute a variety of gatherings and protests.  We expect these gatherings to increase in intensity as the date of the official decision approaches.  Some may become violent. 

Targets of Opportunity
Large public gatherings are soft targets as they are typically in large open areas that are difficult to secure and are attractive targets for extremists (homegrown violent extremists (HVEs), domestic terrorists, and non-ideological individuals because they are easily accessible and have the potential to impact a large group of victims.

In addition to attacks and criminal activity by abortion-related violent extremists, the increase in abortion-related protests and marches could attract the attention of other violent extremists or mass attackers with motives unrelated to abortion, including groups or individuals interested in attacking large crowds and those with grievances against women, such as involuntary celibate (Incel) violent extremists.

Doxing
Advocates from both sides of the issue may be subjected to merciless doxing, or the release of personal information to increase targeted attacks.

Cyber Attacks or Disruptions
In October of 2021, a Planned Parenthood facility in Los Angeles was the victim of a cyber attack.  Patient information included names, dates of birth, addresses, insurance identification numbers, clinical data, diagnoses, treatments provided and prescription information were stolen.  Similar attacks could occur due to heightened tensions.

VFC Statement on the 1st Amendment

The VFC recognizes that United States Citizens have constitutionally protected rights to assemble, speak, and petition the government. The VFC safeguards these first amendment rights, and reports on only those activities where the potential use of rhetoric and/or propaganda could be used to carry out acts of violence. Additionally, potential criminality exhibited by certain members of a group does not negate the constitutional rights of the group itself or its law-abiding participants to exercise their individual liberties under the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.