On 14 September, CIA and DIA officials spoke about al-Qaida’s possible re-emergence in Afghanistan at an annual summit hosted by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.

• CIA’s Deputy Director indicated the agency was keeping “a very close eye” on al-Qaida’s activities in Afghanistan, adding that “[W]e are already beginning to see some of the indications of some potential movement of al-Qaida to Afghanistan.” DIA’s Director said, “The current assessment, probably conservatively, is one to two years for al-Qaida to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland.”

• Both US officials said intelligence agencies were working on ways to continue intelligence collection without a troop presence or Embassy in the country, acknowledging current capabilities were meaningfully reduced by the US withdrawal. In addition, the DIA Director stated, “We’re thinking about ways how to gain access back into Afghanistan with all kinds of sources. We are prioritizing that effort.”

• On 13 September, the Director of National Intelligence said Afghanistan did not currently top the list of international terror threats. She stated the “greatest threat” came from groups operating in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Syria.

On 9 September, the UK Home Office published their quarterly report covering the use of police powers under the Terrorism Act 2000 and subsequent legislation. The report included events between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021. Most notably, there was a significant increase in arrests of minors, but the overall number of people arrested in relation to terrorist activity fell significantly due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

• According to the report, there were 181 arrests for terrorism-related activity, 49 fewer than the previous 12-month period (a decrease of 21%). The report concluded that this was mainly due to a reduction in arrests under non-terrorism legislation.

• Of the 181 arrests for terrorism-related activity, 54 (30%) resulted in a charge, of which 46 were for terrorism-related offenses; 80 (44%) people were released pending further investigation; 43 (24%) were released without charge; and 4 (2%) faced alternative action, i.e. receiving a caution or recalled to prison.

• In addition, 24 of the 181 arrests were children under the age of 18. That was a record high of 13% of all arrests and the largest number of children arrested in relation to terrorism offenses since the Home Office began recording such statistics in 2002. Minors were also the only demographic showing an increase in arrests.
• While fewer arrests overall took place, UK CT Policing was concerned that online radicalization continued at pre-pandemic levels. Terrorist groomers exploited the fact that vulnerable people spent more time online, isolated and without regular access to schools, social workers, and mental health services. (UK CT POLICING, GOVERNMENT OF UK)